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A potential second term as president for Donald Trump is likely to result in an America-first, America-alone .

The ramifications for the could be huge, potentially endangering international security around the globe. So it’s no wonder that the result of the November vote seems of more interest than normal to non-Americans.

Trump is neck and neck with President Joe Biden, each receiving 43% in YouGov‘s New Year’s showing voters’ plans for the upcoming presidential election.

A second term for the likely Republican nominee would have catastrophic effects on international diplomacy, according to Le Monde columnist, Sylvie Kauffman: “The G7 and NATO summits will once again become moments of unpredictable circus – or .”

Continuing the focus of his first presidency, Trump has to move thousands of US troops stationed abroad, FBI agents, and Drug Enforcement Administration officials, to tackle the immigration crisis on the Mexican border.

Not only will this affect the US military presence around the globe – and potentially undermine allies’ security – it will also have a on Mexico, which will have to deal with an increasingly log-jammed border with the United States.

Trump intends to launch what he describes as the “” effort in US history of illegal immigrants and end for children born in the US to immigrants living in the country illegally.

In the same way that Trump the North American free trade agreement into the United States, Mexico, Canada agreement in 2019, it’s likely he would restructure Biden’s economic agreements such as the economic framework.

What will concern most diplomats in Europe is Trump’s to start “fundamentally re-evaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission”. It’s been Trump will withdraw from Nato, or at least revise its doctrine that an attack on one member is an attack on all.

Ending support for Ukraine

He has already that he would stop the “endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine” and demand European partners repay the US$75 billion (£58 billion) of aid that the US pledged to Ukraine.

What is concerning to many is whether Trump will try to uphold to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. It’s almost certain that Trump will discontinue the US’s membership of the 50-nation Contact Group dedicated to supporting Ukraine’s defence from Russia, weakening Ukraine’s potential to defend its territory.

US support of Ukraine extends beyond just logistics. In August 2023, the US agreed to pilots of the US-produced F-16 jets provided to Ukraine by its European allies. A continuation of this agreement will be vital to any Ukrainian hopes of withstanding Russian advances.

The war would not end simply because Trump wishes it, and any Russian gains from the conflict might encourage Russia to try to regain former territory in Moldova or any of the Baltic states.

And that the lack of opposition to any Russian territory grab is likely to encourage China to attempt to annex Taiwan. Trump, despite promising an aggressive with China, has to confirm whether he would send troops to help defend the island should China invade.

While much of Trump’s first term in office of the Obama administration’s changes, a second term would be aimed at ensuring centralisation of power in the Trump presidency and rolling back the Biden administration’s initiatives.

One significant difference this time around is that Trump and his allies have his term next since he left the White House. Trump would be surrounded exclusively with his loyalists, be free of any restrictive voices of reason and be more organised than his first term.

It is unlikely that Trump will continue to moderate Israeli operations in Gaza. Trump has been a long-time ally of Israel and became the first US president to Jerusalem as the Israeli capital in 2017.

On the day of the attack on October 7 in Israel, Trump on Hamas to be “crushed” by Israel for it staking of hostages, but that Israel needed “do a better job of public relations, frankly, because the other side is beating them at the public relations front”.

Pulling out of green policies

There is also determination to push back on Biden’s clean energy objectives. Trump’s energy policies are summed up by his of “drill baby drill!”, are aimed at ensuring the US has the lowest-cost energy and electricity prices.

It is possible that Trump will pull out of policies agreed at COP28 in the same way that the US’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement in 2017. Although the US re-joined the agreement in 2021, Trump has to withdraw again should he be elected.

In August 2023, Trump a radical new economic agenda. It included a 10% tariff on imports into the US, and a Tariff Act to put further tariffs on any nation that taxes US exports.

Although a great deal of concern focuses on Trump’s potential re-election, his main opponents for the Republican nomination, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, have both aggressive immigration policies and support for Israel, although only Haley has that she would continue to support Ukraine.

While the election is still ten months away, the possibility of Trump being re-elected has already affected US foreign policy. Last month, President Biden against signing a trade deal with the UK until after both countries have had their next elections. While this is significant, it is nothing compared to the impact that Trump’s re-election will have on the rest of the globe should he return to the White House.

, Teaching Fellow in International Security,

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